The capacity of protected areas in the Barents Region to conserve biodiversity threatened by climate change
Background
The threat of a changing climate has been recognised as one of the main drivers behind (future) extinctions. Its predicted impact is thought to be large scale and capable of affecting entire ecosystems. Especially the high latitude regions in the northern hemisphere are expected to be affected by climate change, which makes species in regions like the Barents Region particularly vulnerable. A recently completed project, conducted at Umeå University and funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, concerned the Barents region, and investigated the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services in the Barents Region. This project led to the strong believe that, unless actions are taken, climate change may make current efforts to conserve biodiversity irrelevant or obsolete. Therefore, Umeå University started another Barents project, funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, which focuses on the challenges facing nature conservation in the Barents region i.e. northern Norway, Sweden, Finland and north-western Russia.
The Barents Region showing the protected areas as defined by the WDPA (UNEP and IUCN, available at url: http://www.wdpa.org/)
Project aims and structure
The aims of the project are to evaluate the effectiveness of presently protected areas in the Barents Region in conserving species and ecosystems in a future situation with a warmer climate. We will analyse the need for new reserves, identify areas where management or assisted dispersal may be required to help species colonize new suitable areas, and examine the opportunities for artificially maintaining species in current reserves by managing them differently than at present. Specifically, we ask:
1. Can the network of protected areas adequately conserve species and ecosystem types in the Barents Region in a future situation with a warmer climate?
2. Where are the major gaps in terms of providing stepping-stones or migration routes between reserves, and in representing natural variation in a future situation with a warmer climate?
3. What are the economic consequences of alternative conservation strategies, i.e. how much money is invested in reserves that no longer are expected to be effective in conserving biodiversity, and what is the estimated cost of establishing a network of reserves effective both in allowing between-reserve dispersal and in representing biodiversity in a future, warmer climate?
Expected output
The Barents project will contribute the following to society
- An insight in how future climate change (2080) may affect ecosystems and biodiversity in the Barents region
- A guidance for nature conservation managers concerning the best strategies to respond to future climate change in the Barents region
- A number of mitigation measures to ensure protected areas are able to retain their rich biodiversity in a future, warmer, climate
- A number of assessments for IUCN red-listed species
- An estimate of the “cost” of not acting to fulfil the requirements of the Convention of Biological Diversity, i.e. avoiding further losses of species.
Research group
Project leader: Prof. Christer Nilsson
Project coordinator: Associate Prof. Roland Jansson
GIS analyses and climate change modeling: Dr. Anouschka Hof
Steering Group
Anne Berteig, Ministry of Environment, Norway
Magne Røed, Ministry of Environment, Norway
Gunilla Blomquist, Ministry of the Environment, Swede
Natalya Vavilova, Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology, Russia
Hanne Aronsen, Norwegian Pollution Control Authority, Norway
Irene Bauer, Ministry of Environment, Norway
Ida Reuterswärd, Ministry of the Environment, Sweden
Henna Haapala, Ministry of the Environment, Finland
Jan-Petter Hubert Hansen, Directorate for Nature Management, Norway
Consultation group
Aimo Saano, Finnish Forest Administration (Metsähallitus), Finland
Galina Veselova, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Russia
Tapio Lindholm, Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
Ellen Arneberg, Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management, Norway
Olle Höjer, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, Sweden
Jan-Petter Hubert Hansen, Directorate for Nature Management, Norway
Mats-Rune Bergström, County Administration of Västerbotten, Sweden
Minna Hartikainen, Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
Bente Christiansen, County Governor of Finnmark, Norway
Jari Pasanen, Lapland Regional Environmental Centre, Finland
Demian Smilevets, Federal Agency of Water Resources, Russia
Progress
At present expected changes in the future distribution ranges of a large number of species have been assessed. We investigated the changes in the ranges of in total 64 mammal, 18 amphibian and reptile, 47 terrestrial slug and snail, 283 breeding bird, and 93 butterfly species. We will continue with trees and other species. See below for a few examples of range expanding/ range contracting/ and invading species.
So far we have found that the climatic conditions are expected to improve in the future in the Barents Region for many species. More warm and wetter conditions (see figure 1) will allow a considerable number of species to expand their distribution range. However, various species (especially habitat specialists) are expected to contract their range over time. Furthermore, several new species are predicted to be able to invade the region, altering community composition.
Range expansion
The West-European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) is a common, widespread insectivorous mammal. It is currently mainly occurring in the more southern, relatively warmer parts of the Barents region. As a hibernating species, it is bound by cold climates. With the expected warming of the Barents region it is predicted that the hedgehog will be able to expand northwards (see figure 2a).
Range contraction
The Norway lemming (Lemmus lemmus) is currently occurring in large parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and parts of North-western Russia. It is endemic to the region and mainly inhabits alpine and subarctic habitats. However, it is expected that these habitat types will cover less area in the Barents region in the future due to climate change. It is therefore not surprising that the distribution range of the Norway lemming is expected to decrease (see figure 2b). Although the Norway lemming is currently classified as ‘least concern’ by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (http://www.iucnredlist.org/apps/redlist/details/11481/0), the species is likely going to face declines due to climate change. This is not only a threat to the species itself, but may also increase pressure upon other species that heavily prey upon Norway lemming, like the arctic fox (Alopex lagopus).
Invasion
The whiskered bat (Myotis mystacinus) is currently occurring in the southern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and North-western Russia. At present it is absent from the Barents region. As many bats, the whiskered bat is limited in its distribution by cold temperatures. Consequently, it is predicted to be able to find its way up to the Barents region in the future (see figure 2c), when we will likely have a warmer climate.
Figure 1. The predicted mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature in the Barents Region. Data are based upon future climatic predictions of the downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) CGCM2, developed by the ‘Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’, and HadCM3 developed by the Hadley Centre.
Figure 2. The predicted changes in the distribution range of the a) European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus), b) Norway lemming (Lemmus lemmus), and c) Whiskered bat (Myotis mystacinus).
